Exemple tiré de Small Stakes No Limit Hold'em par Ed Miller, Sunny Metha et Matt Flynn.
You might be playing out-of-your-skin poker but still lose money, which makes it frustratingly difficult to analyse what you might be doing right and what you might be doing wrong.M also has a cool downloadable excel variance simulator too, but it's not as quick and easy to use as the online simulator.However, you have to get used to it if you want to win money from poker over the long run.Enter the data, hop over to the, variance Calculator page and enter your winrate, standard deviation and the number of hands you want to simulate.In general these simulations underestimate the extent of downswings, but the numbers should still give you a decent idea of the vastness of downswings you should expect.The element of luck causes variance.As you can see, variance is the difference between the expected long term results and actual short term results, in this case it is 4 buy-ins worth of variance.However, you actually end up losing all 5 all-ins against your opponents 5 random hands.OmgbennyLava, 04:24 AM # 14 Royston Vasey old hand Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: East Yorkshire, England Posts: 1,530 Re: Variance Simulator Royston Vasey, 04:26 AM # 15 _ maven _ enthusiast Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 99 Re: Variance Simulator _ maven _, 04:27.
Mais il ne s'agit là que d'une moyenne.
Large MTTs will have much more variance than SNGs because you expect to win far less often.On average you expected to win 4 out of these 5 all-ins, but thanks to variance you ended up winning 0 out.Variance in numbers, below the first chart the Variance Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information: EV : win rate entered above, standard deviation : standard deviation entered above.Downswings in numbers The last section of the Variance Calculator sheds some more light on potential downswings.For example: SD/100 of 25 casinos in mn from PT3 Divide it by 2 for ptbb, then multiply it by stakes (lets assume 100NL so 1 as the big blind.It'll also calculate the expected winnings over the amount of hands.Winrate (bb/100) : le winrate est le "taux de gains c'est-à-dire votre gain moyen pour 100 mains.
95 confidence interval : Same as the above with 95 certainty.
Le graph "Longest Breakeven Probability" (probabilité de la plus longue prériode de breakeven) est.900 mains.